Underdogs fall at final hurdle

Despite starting slowly, it seemed Turkey and Russia had learnt the art of timing from their Swiss hosts. But after three weeks in the Alps, the two losing semi-finalists now fly home with the realization that they peaked too soon.

For the Turks, another thrilling comeback win seemed on the cards when the “lifeguard,” Semih Şentürk performed his customary heroics in the 86th minute. Alas, the recovery came too soon.

Against the Czech Republic and Croatia, Turkey’s vital goals were knockout blows, delivered as the last murmurs of life drained from normal and extra time. In the semi-final, they struck prematurely.

Not only did they have the audacity to take the lead against Germany, but when Miroslav Klose nodded the favorites ahead 11 minutes from time, Turkey’s response left the Germans a full four minutes plus injury time to find a winner.

Philipp Lahm duly obliged with a goal fit to win any game, even if the result was harsh on the spirited Turks. With only 14 players fit and available, Fatih Terim saw his makeshift side seize the initiative against a full-strength but tentative German team.

Unsurprisingly, the German response came from yet another incisive Podolski-Schweinsteiger break. The sparkling collaborations between the two friends will be one the enduring memories of the tournament.

The match flowed back and forth until Klose snatched the lead with his second goal of the tournament. When Şentürk leveled things up seven minutes later, extra-time loomed large and the flares were ignited in Istanbul’s Taksim Sqaure.

Back in Basel, the city’s “Fan Zone” became the unsuspecting center of attention as the international live feed from St. Jakob’s Park failed – the crowd’s reaction to their uninterrupted pictures provided ESPN’s audience with their only gauge for the continuing on-field events.

Lightning in Vienna, where UEFA’s media operation is housed, was to blame for the disruption and it meant that millions of worldwide viewers missed the majority of the climactic action.

After much frustration, the pictures resumed long enough to see Lahm’s winning goal. It was a sucker-punch from which even the Houdini-like Turks could not recover. After two “miracles” brought them this far, lightning struck for a third time, but this time in Vienna and not for Turkey.

The following evening, with the weather only slightly improved, the in-form Russians took on Spain for a date with Germany on Sunday.

Fresh from a stunning victory over Holland, Arshavin, Hiddink and Co. were the talk of the town. Unfortunately for Russia, they could not repeat their quarter-final performance and fell to a Spanish side superior to them in every quarter.

Even the first-half loss of David Villa – who will now miss Sunday’s final – could not blunt Spain’s sterling play. Instead, the metronomic Xavi and Iniesta were joined by the outstanding Cesc Fabregas, and the trio carved the Russian defence to shreds. This was a Spanish victory bred in Catalonia.

In comparison, the Barcelona-hopeful Arshavin was subdued beyond recognition. His trademark energy seemed dulled by the speculation that has surrounded him after his brilliance against the Dutch. His touch frequently betrayed him but Puyol and Marchena must take great credit for the way they marshaled Russia’s no.10 and suppressed his service to Pavlyuchenko.

Still perfect, Spain now faces Germany with a chance to emulate the 1984 French side that remains the only team to run the tables at a European Championship.

Best remembered as “Platini’s tournament,” Euro ’84 was also the last time Spain appeared in a major international final. In the same period, Germany has reached five major finals – Sunday’s showdown will make it six.

So Vienna is set for a clash between the ultimate overachievers and the perennial underperformers; Teutonic industry against Latin ingenuity. Euro 2008 has the final it deserves.

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Euro Stock Market

After a slow start, Euro 2008 has started to provide the sort of drama that we all hoped for. The hosts and holders have made an early exit, but the tragedy and elation will heighten for the remaining players as we reach the higher climbs of the tournament. With the Group Stages consigned to the history books, Martin North takes stock of the storylines so far.

On The Up

Holding midfielders

The “Makelele” role is more important than ever. The tournament’s most compelling attacking units have employed a pivot-player to liberate their more creative weapons.

Orlando Engelaar and Nigel de Jong provided the platform for Wesley Sneijder’s heroics against Italy and France.

Brazilian-born Marcos Senna is preferred to Cesc Fabregas by Luis Aragones. Fabregas’s talent lights up the Premier League, but for Spain he is reduced to an impact sub in favor of Senna’s darker arts.

Dean Gaffney look-alike Petit patrols the trenches for Portugal, allowing Deco and Cristiano Ronaldo to make their forward forays.

The tournament’s surprise package so far, Turkey has employed Mehmet Aurelio – yet another Brazilian convert – as the defensive rock in tandem with the energetic Arda Turan.

Marco van Basten

Compared to some of his counterparts at Euro 2008, the 43 year-old Van Basten is still in his managerial infancy. After taking the Holland job in 2004, he was quick to establish his authority and put faith in youth by dropping veterans like Edgar Davids, Patrick Kluivert and Mark van Bommel. His feud with Ruud van Nistelrooy came to an end last year but the Oranje flattered to deceive during qualification for Austria and Switzerland. In 12 games they scored only 15 goals, finishing second in Group G to Romania. Their punishment was a draw that paired them not only with the Romanians, but also the 2006 World Cup Finalists Italy and France. Extraordinary victories over the two group favorites have silenced the critics and the manner of success can be credited in no small part to Van Basten. His decision to leave Clarence Seedorf at home has been vindicated as Wesley Sneijder, Rafael Van der Vaart, Orlando Engelaar, Nigel de Jong and Dirk Kuyt have combined to form the tournament’s most exciting midfield. At the beginning of the second half against Italy, Van Basten stemmed the Azzurri tide with the introduction of Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie, both scoring to put the win beyond doubt.

Flying full-backs

With counter-attacking sides in the ascendancy, the benefit of athletic full-backs who can stretch the field is clear.

The galloping Danijel Pranjic has starred for Croatia on their left flank. On the right, Vedran Corluka is fast becoming one of the best young defenders in Europe.

33 year-old Giovanni van Bronkhorst has reeled back the years and contributed as much as anyone to Holland’s early success. His goal against Italy was just reward for a swashbuckling performance.

Italian fortunes have improved with Fabio Grosso back in the side. The left-back was one of Italy’s most consistent performer’s at the last World Cup. Gianluca Zambrotta has begun to find some form after a poor start against Holland in the first game. The more he and Grosso figure, the better the Azzurri’s chances in the knockout rounds.

Guus Hiddink knows the value of a good full-back and he has an excellent one in Alexander Anyukov for Russia. The pacy right-back was instrumental in Russia’s victory over Sweden.

Goalkeeping

If you find yourself on the ropes in international football, it helps to have a world class goalkeeper behind you. Petr Cech’s tragic mistake against Turkey aside, the standard of goalkeeping in the tournament thus far has been excellent.

The usual suspects have performed as expected. Italy would be on their way back home if it weren’t for Gigi Buffon. His penalty save against Romania is par for the course for the world’s best keeper.

Holland’s win over Italy would have been by a finer margin had Edwin van der Sar not brilliantly saved Andrea Pirlo’s free kick. Instead of their lead dwindling to one goal, the Dutch then proceeded to sweep downfield and add a third.

Less experienced keepers have also shined. Volkan Demirel has been vital to Turkey’s dramatic run to the quarter-finals. His two-game ban for a tame push on Jan Koller deprives the Turks of a wonderful shot-stopper. Croatia will severely test his replacement.

Even one of the worst teams boasted a first-rate goalkeeper. While his teammates managed only one goal in three games, Artur Boruc ensured Poland were not completely embarrassed. His “thou shalt not pass” defiance was impressive in the face of repeated attacks.

Lagging Behind

Spectacular goals

Goals in the group stage are down from Euro 2004 – 57 this year compared to 64 in Portugal. The high standard of goalkeeping may be one reason for the drop. Certainly, concerns over this year’s match ball seem to be ill-founded. Several goalkeepers, including Jens Lehmann and Petr Cech, complained that the “Europass” ball deviated wildly in flight. Cech said that he expected to see “lots of goals from 30 meters out.” That hasn’t happened.

The last World Cup kicked off with two stunning goals from Philipp Lahm and Torsten Frings that set the tone for a month of spectacular net-bursting efforts.

To date, Euro 2008 has seen very few long range shots find their target. Michael Ballack’s arrowed goal against Austria was the first and only score of the group stage from a direct free kick, not counting Daniele De Rossi’s deflected strike against France.

Instead, the trend has been toward razor-sharp finishes from sweeping counter-attacks; Russia’s two goals against Sweden are perfect examples. The majority of Holland and Spain’s 17 goals so far have come on the break.

Don’t bet against seeing some fireworks as the competition heats up. With the likes of Ballack, Cristiano Ronaldo and Fernando Torres still involved, breathtaking, bending shots could be just around the corner.

Refereeing

Manuel Mehuto Gomez’s farcical dismissal of Joachim Low and Josef Hickersberger was symptomatic of the refereeing in the tournament so far. Too often, officials and their decisions have become the story.

But the major problem remains consistency. How can Marcin Wasilewsk’s challenge on Sebastian Prödl be penalized yet Johan Elmander escapes after flattening David Silva in the box? A foul should be a foul, no mater where it occurs.

Referees clearly need help but they have received scarce assistance from their linesmen. Bad offside calls have peppered the tournament so far. It seems like every game has seen at least two or three obvious errors by flag-happy assistants; Perhaps another reason for fewer goals.

Czech Rep/France/Greece

Ranked 6th, 7th and 8th in the world respectively, Euro 2008 has been a massive disappointment for the Czechs, French and Greeks.

Karel Brückner’s men started slowly against Switzerland. Lucky to escape with a win, there was no improvement against Portugal and the capitulation to Turkey was a major step backward for one of Europe’s most consistent teams of the last 15 years.

Although not as embarrassing as their exit from the 2002 World Cup, France’s dismal showing appears to have sounder the death knell for the illustrious generation that won World and European glory. Claude Makelele and Lilian Thuram have already announced their international retirements. The likes of Coupet, Vieira and Henry may follow suit or find themselves phased out.

The Greeks were nowhere near being the “new Greece,” and that’s a good thing for football. The class of 2004 showed what can be accomplished with organization, drive and togetherness, but their success came at the expense of flair and creativity. Without the inspirational ability of a Zidane or Cruyff, football becomes mundane. Greece was the Cinderella of European football but what did they give us? What game-changing moments of skill or breathtaking play did they offer us? That Ex-Leicester City midfielder Theo Zagorakis won Player of the Tournament in Portugal speaks volumes.

Zero wins this summer may be bad for Greece, but thankfully it shows that football has moved on.

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Italy Tops France in Battle of Aging Heavyweights

France and Italy must be sick of each other. Eight years ago, France prevailed when they met in the final of Euro 2000. Six years later, Italy had the ultimate revenge in Berlin.

The two giants were drawn together in qualifying for Euro 2008 then found themselves in the same finals group, the so-called “Group of Death.” Both were still expected to qualify mind you.

Unfortunately for the French, Holland and Romania had other ideas. Both conspired to foil the favorites in very different ways. Where Romania stifled, the Dutch overwhelmed.

The flowing football of a youthful Holland team has been in stark contrast to the stodgy fare served up by aging French and Italian squads. Crushing defeats to Van Basten’s Orange Swarm had Domenech and Donadoni not only fighting for Euro survival, but also their jobs.

So instead of a procession, yesterday’s latest installment of the French-Italian rivalry became a winner-takes-all showdown. It was France who flinched first.

The loss of Franck Ribery to injury after only 10 minutes was painful enough. Eric Abidal’s clumsy challenge on Luca Toni and subsequent dismissal was a mortal wound from which there would be no Gallic recovery.

Andrea Pirlo dispatched the resulting penalty with characteristic precision. It was his delightfully weighted pass that had released Toni behind the French defence, one of several chances Pirlo provided for his misfiring striker.

In fact, had Abidal not dived in so recklessly, Toni would probably have missed given his current form. He is yet to score in the tournament despite playing 90 minutes in all three group games. Of his 12 shots to date, only 3 have been on target.

Spain’s David Villa, who the Azzurri will now meet in the Quarter-finals, has already scored 4 goals from 11 shots in only 2 games.

On yesterday’s showing, beating Spain will require substantial improvement. The defence remains a work in progress – Zambrotta and Grosso are first-rate full-backs but Xavi, Iniesta and Co. will fancy their chances of unlocking a Chiellini/Panucci partnership in the center.

They weren’t overly troubled by the French attack. Thierry Henry pouted but his most significant contribution was a toe poke that deflected Daniele De Rossi’s free kick into his own net. Despite a disappointing debut season at the Nou Camp, Henry appears to have a future at Barcelona. Whether his international career continues all the way to South Africa must now be in doubt.

Apart from Karim Benzema, there are no obvious candidates to replace Henry for Les Bleus. Benzema huffed and puffed but too often he found himself playing in the hole while Henry spearheaded the attack.

Surely the pair would have been more effective in the opposite positions. Henry’s creativity should have thrived in the space and channels created by Benzema smash-and-grab ability stretching the field. Instead, Henry led the line and Benzema lacked the maturity and guile to fashion clear-cut openings for his captain.

Only Domenech knows why these roles weren’t reversed. There will undoubtedly be calls for his resignation following a departure that rivals the 2002 World Cup in terms of embarrassment. Claude Makelele has already announced his international retirement and more will follow. After scoring only one goal in three games, an introduction of new blood from Clairefontaine is desperately required, especially in attack.

Italy benefited greatly from their own injection of youth. De Rossi’s box-to-box energy gives the Azzurri engine room increased horsepower. The Roma midfielder’s forcefulness is a nice complement to the elegance of Pirlo. His presence, alongside the snapping Gennaro Gattuso, will be crucial if Italy hope to limit the space in which Spain’s creative midfielders operate.

If they can disrupt the Spanish rhythm, and if Toni finally finds his shooting boots, Italy could face a rematch with Holland in the Semi-finals. Their experience will be invaluable as the tournament progresses, but will this prove to be a tournament too far for the World Champions?

The average age of their starting line-up against France was 28.9. Compare that with the Dutch, who comfortably beat Romania with a back-up team aged 25.5.

But have the Dutch peaked too soon? Since the Group format began in 1980, only once – France in 1984 – has team won every game on its way to the trophy. Holland will certainly take some stopping. At present they are a quite irresistible force – 9 goals in the Group stage is a feat equaled only by, yep you guessed it, the Platini-led French in 1984.

If they do meet again, Holland vs. Italy will be a classic duel between youthful urgency and veteran endurance. The pace-making Dutch have the legs for a sprint; Italian hopes depend on outlasting them in the ensuing marathon.

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Group of Death brings Tournament to life

Whisper it quietly, but we witnessed something resembling “Total Football’ yesterday in Berne.

Holland produced a display that harkened back to the Golden Age and left Italy needing a mini-renaissance if they’re to make the quarter-finals.

It could have been worse for the Azzurri. A French victory against Romania, the group’s supposed whipping-boys, would have left Roberto Donadoni’s men playing catch-up. Instead, Romania held firm and the group remains finely poised before next week’s showdown between Italy and France.

One European heavyweight is bound to leave Group C empty-handed and each had injury worries going into their first games. Italy are without their captain, Fabio Cannavaro, for the entire tournament, Thierry Henry was absent for France, while Holland were missing Arjen Robben and Ryan Babel, with Robin van Persie still on his way back to full fitness.

It was the Dutch who coped best. In the style of days gone by, the Oranje swarmed on the break to glorious effect. The former Ajax double-act of Wesley Sneijder and Rafael van der Vaart worked in perfect harmony and were given freedom to probe the makeshift Italian defence by Orlando Engelaar, a revelation in the holding role.

Without their captain, Italy sorely lacked organization at the back. Once renowned for its Catenaccio (“door-bolt”) defensive system, the Italian defence was full of holes that were gleefully filled by Ruud van Nistelrooy. Holland’s poacher-in-chief was left completely unmarked for his goal – a defensive lapse that Cannavaro’s presence would surely have prevented.

The second Dutch goal would have given him more problems. It was a masterful counter-attack, brutal in its directness but exquisite in its execution. Sneijders’s finish was sheer perfection, worthy of the Dutch masters of yesteryear.

Giovanni van Bronkhorst’s goal, the third of the night, could only have been a product of the Dutch philosophy. Who else would counter-attack with such appetite when leading 2-0? Who else would finish a sweeping move in seconds with a towering header from their left-back? Not Italy, that’s for sure.

When the Italians did threaten, a combination of Edwin van der Sar’s athleticism and Luca Toni’s wastefulness conspired against them. Van der Sar’s performance should be no surprise; the Dutch captain has enjoyed one of his finest campaigns for some time. Toni’s squandering is harder to fathom. He scored 24 goals for Bayern in the Bundesliga this season yet failed to convert a handful of chances, the sort he gobbles up with relish for the German champions.

Goals were similarly in short supply at the Letzigrund in Zurich. The match finished in the tournament’s first scoreless draw and, to be honest, neither side came close.

Romania played for the draw and frustrated France by dropping plenty of men behind the ball and stifling play. Cunning was required but instead the French were reduced to potshots from 25 yards. Imagination, usually provided by Henry and, once upon a time, Zinedine Zidane, was conspicuous by its absence.

Still, better things were expected of Franck Ribery and Karim Benzema. Both have been in blistering form for their clubs but were nullified by the defensive barricade set before them.

Nicolas Anelka partnered Benzema in the French attack and he too showed little sign of breaching the Romanian defenses. No surprise there really. “Le Sulk” has a distinctly below-average goal-scoring record for France and his efforts yesterday ranged from optimistic to downright selfish. David Trezeguet was left at home despite a far superior international record - Les Bleus may miss him more as the tournament progresses.

The French and Italians are notorious slow starters but both need to quickly breathe new life into their play if they hope to survive group C. Never before has Italy conceded three goals in European Championship play. Now the task is to prevent further embarrassment. Donadoni’s future with the Azzurri will depend on it. Against France next Tuesday, they would do well to follow Romania’s lead.

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Favorites win but rough justice for entertaining hosts

Even the most optimistic Swiss and Austrian supporters knew that their hopes of success this summer were slim. The gloomier among them, including 10,000 Austrians who signed a petition against their participation, feared national embarrassment.

Even though Euro 2008’s opening weekend saw the home nations battle with and ultimately fall to more illustrious opponents, the Czech Republic and Croatia, the cynics who suggested the hosts didn’t even deserve to be at their own party were left eating humble pie.

Both were dreadfully unlucky to lose. Their positive play was ultimately foiled by wasteful finishing and contentious penalty decisions. Austrian complaints about Croatia’s match-winning penalty had little merit, but the Swiss were hard done by when Tomáš Ujfaluši’s clear handball went unpunished.

It will surprise many that the Czechs and Croats, widely considered tournament dark horses, struggled to close their games out, inviting late pressure by continually conceding possession.

Karel Brückner and Slaven Bilić will argue that their sides’ pedestrian play was simply a slow start against teams fueled by patriotic support. 1-0 wins are not to be sneezed at, but they will need to pick up the pace against their next opponents. Portugal and Germany will present a far sterner test of Czech and Croat credentials.

Losing is bound to temper some of the hosts’ early enthusiasm, but Switzerland and Austria should take heart from their performances. The hosts showed enough craft and endeavor to suggest that, even if they fail to extend their involvement beyond next Monday, they won’t be departing in shame.

With no serious expectations weighing them down, Swiss and Austrian players have a perfect opportunity to prove their ability at the highest level.

Some have found themselves thrust into the limelight after playing infrequently at club level. Whether for national pride or professional advancement, international tournaments provide footballers from smaller countries with unparalleled exposure for their talents.

At Euro 2004, Angelos Charisteas seized his chance for Greece despite being the fourth choice striker at Werder Bremen. His winning goal in the final against Portugal was his third vital strike of the competition and he earned a place in UEFA’s Team of the Tournament.

One of the weekend’s most impressive showings came from another Werder striker. Austria’s Martin Harnik has yet to establish himself at the Weserstadion but he drifted wide to great effect on Sunday. His direct running tormented the Croatian left back and he whipped in several venomous crosses that should have been exploited by his profligate teammates.

Harnik could have played for Germany since he was born in Hamburg to a German mother. Instead he chose to represent his father’s homeland and, if yesterday was any indication, Austrian football has every reason to be grateful.

It was a good weekend for foreign-born nationals. Lukas Podolski, whose value to the German national team seems to outweigh his significance at Bayern Munich, scored twice against Poland, his country of birth. His celebrations were muted – a broader smile will surely appear if he repeats the trick against Croatia.

The Germans looked good in Klagenfurt – an ominous sign for the rest of the field. Unlike the Czech Republic and Croatia, they maintained the initiative after their first goal. The Poles showed some spirit towards the end of the first half, but the Germans were comfortable throughout the second period and could have easily registered more than Podolski’s double strike.

Portugal completed the favorites’ dominance of the opening fixtures. Turkey proved competitive for the first hour until another foreign recruit, Brazilian-born Pepe, broke the deadlock. Earning only his fourth cap since becoming a Portuguese citizen in August of last year, the Real Madrid centre-half brought some samba to Geneva as he slalomed his way through the Turkish defence before beating the keeper.

If Swiss and Austrian forwards shared the same ruthlessness in front of the goal as Portuguese defenders, the hosts might have some hope of progression. As it is, their fans probably have only one more week to cheer them on. Until then, they can be proud of teams that are anything but embarrassing.

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Euro 2008 – The long and short of it

With only days to go until Euro 2008 kicks off in Basel, millions of supporters and neutrals alike will be doing their best to predict the tournament’s outcome. Patriotic bias will cloud the thoughts of many; from Moscow to Madrid, arguments will be made for each nation’s superiority.

As an Englishman I have no such problem this year. Steve McClaren’s bungling put paid to my dreams of another glorious failure. Probably for the best really; the inevitable shoot-out heartache would surely flood the Alpine valleys with John Terry’s tears.

At least English supporters don’t have the ultimate indignity of watching the Tartan Army party their way through Austria and Switzerland, though they came mighty close. Now we join the Scots in the ignominious club of European spectators. How do perennially deprived souls like the Finns and Cypriots cope with the emptiness every other summer?

They could learn from American sports fans and practice the art of “bracketology.” Whether for honor or cold, hard cash, few football supporters are immune from imagining themselves to be a sporting Nostradamus. For some, the prospect of profit might be the only reason to endure the depression of their own team’s absence.

So, how best to forecast the results, and possibly make a pretty penny at the same time?

Location, location, location. There’s nothing like playing in your own backyard. Home support, familiarity with climate and infrastructure can give teams a real boost. On only three occasions has the home country, or countries bordering the home nation, failed to reach the final. Since 1980, the only host not to reach at least the semis was the Belgians in 2000.

Austria and Switzerland will need any advantage they can get if they’re to reach the latter stages. Languishing 101st in the FIFA rankings, first-timers Austria are the tournament’s rank outsiders at 100/1.

The Swiss are a better bet to reach the knockout rounds, but they have yet to win a group game in their two finals appearances. Progress from a group containing Portugal and the Czech Republic would be a giant leap forward.

If the Nati require inspiration they should dust off some video of the 1992 tournament, when the unheralded Danes took the short hop, skip and jump to Sweden and stunned Europe. That they triumphed over reigning World Champions Germany in the final was surprising enough. That they won without Denmark’s greatest ever player, Michael Laudrup, was a remarkable achievement.

Apart from that success, Northern European performance in European Championships has been woeful. No other Scandinavian or British sides have ever reached the final, so think twice before backing the 33/1 Swedes.

Rather more successful has been Germany. The three time winners have a squad that mixes experienced veterans with exciting youngsters, and they have the added bonus of being close to home. If you choose history as your guide, German pedigree is unmatched; the 4/1 favorites have reached the final in 55% of the tournaments they’ve entered.

Past performance shouldn’t be your only resource, as the last tournament shows. Greece had only reached the 1st round once, yet they won in 2004 with a sturdy if not spectacular team. If you feel like backing another novice, why not have a pop on Poland, the only other nation along with Austria to have never featured at the finals before. The Poles also won their group above Portugal, so they’re worth a gamble at a generous 40/1.

You could argue that the Portuguese are overdue having reached at least the Semis three times and never taken home the silverware. With Europe’s best player Cristiano Ronaldo, and a team still smarting from their failure against Greece four years ago, Phil Scolari’s men have a good chance of finally breaking their duck.

Despite their recent success, Italy hasn’t won the Euros since 1968. But, on form, they look well placed to add to their solitary triumph. The current World champions are the World’s best European team according to Fifa, behind only Argentina and Brazil. Unfortunately for the Azzurri, it’s a hard task to win two major tournaments in a row; reigning World Champs have only won the subsequent Euros once, when France beat the Italians in 2000. The loss of Fabio Cannavaro, with torn ankle ligaments, makes the task of going back to back even harder.

Meanwhile, Euro Champs Greece have moved up to a record 8th in Fifa rankings after beating Portugal in March. Their rise under Otto Rehhagel has been astounding and, despite not reaching the last World Cup, they won their Euro 2008 qualification group with ease over arch-rivals Turkey. No country has ever won successive titles but only a fool would rule out the possibility of lightning striking twice.

The Germans were the strongest team in qualification, scoring 35 goals and conceding only seven. As impressive as this tally is, it did benefit from some merciless minnow-bashing – Germany’s 13-0 thrashing of San Marino dramatically boosted their qualification goal difference. The win featured seven different German scorers with Lukas Podolski notching four.

Goals will be harder to come by in Austria and Switzerland. Over the last four tournaments, the European Championships have yielded 2.35 goals per game while World Cups over the same period have seen 2.55 goals per game.

The Euros also tend to be more competitive with games separated by fewer goals than at the World Cup. At Euro 2004 the average margin of victory in group play was 1.17 goals, while in the knock-out rounds it was down to a measly goal per game. Comparatively, the 2006 World Cup had average margins of 1.48 during the group stage, and 1.17 at the business end.

With no Japans or Costa Ricas to take to the cleaners, European teams must rely on the odd moment of inspiration from their forwards. Angelos Charisteas scored three priceless goals, including two gamewinners, for Greece in 2004. At this level, only one goal can separate even the most redoubtable adversaries.

Portuguese hopes lie with Cristiano Ronaldo. After walking the European Golden Shoe contest this season, the Manchester United winger would dearly love to add the Euro Golden Boot to his rapidly expanding trophy cabinet.

Portugal’s Iberian neighbors, Spain have one of the best teams on paper; an unparalleled spine of Casillas, Puyol, Fabregas and Torres is joined by a supporting cast that includes Sergio Ramos, Xavi, Iniesta and David Villa. Even with a wealth of attacking riches, La Furia Roja will have to focus defensively if they want to relinquish the tag of Europe’s bridesmaids.

No footballing nation is on a high quite like Russia at the moment. As if ousting England from the summer’s festivities wasn’t enough, the Russian league is also on the rise with Zenit St. Petersburg deservedly winning this year’s Uefa Cup.

Zenit’s brightest star in Manchester was Russian captain Andrei Arshavin. The diminutive playmaker is suspended for Russia’s first two fixtures, but if they can make it to the quarters without him they would become an attractive option at 22/1.

If your team’s crafty no.10 can’t find the breakthrough, the agony of penalties awaits. The fate of England seems to have been ruled by shootouts over the last 20 years, but this summer there will be no English villain for the tabloids to lambaste.

England’s most recent spot-kick vanquishers, Portugal have the best shootout percentage of any European team at 80%. The Czech are second with 66.7% success and the ice-cool Germans are third on 60%.

Since Euro games are statistically more likely to reach penalties – 29% go the distance opposed to only 20% at the World Cup – it makes sense to steer clear of those counties that couldn’t hit a barn door with a banjo from 12 yards. Even worse than England (16.7%) is the Netherlands; the Dutch have won a pitiful 12.5% of their shootouts. When it comes to penalties, it seems the Oranje are too often yellowbellied.

Need something more to make your picks? Why not look to the most intense European competition of them all, the Eurovison Song Contest. The Welsh know a good tune when they hear one and anyone who’s heard their pre-match rendition of Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau (Land of My Fathers) can understand the inspirational power of a national anthem.

There are few anthems as rousing as the unapologetically nationalistic La Marseillaise – a hymn so stirring it’s no wonder Zinedine Zidane got a little too fired up at the last World Cup.

Adrian Mutu and his fellow Romanians will have no excuse for sluggishness after hearing their anthem, Deşteaptă-te, române! (Awaken thee, Romanian!). They will need to stay wide-awake to harbor any hope of surviving this year’s Group of Death along with France, Holland and Italy.

Should all else fail and even melodic subjectivity brings you no closer to your perfect picks, maybe we can turn to science. Surely it’s only a matter of time until some bright spark cracks the footballer’s genome and reveals which Romanian defender is molecularly predisposed to giving away a last-minute penalty.

Until then, predicting the plot of so fickle a sport would stump even the brainiest Ivy Leaguer. If you were, however, one of the visionaries who backed the 150-1 Greeks in 2004, then drop me a line and share your secret. Until then, here are my predictions:

Group A – Portugal to win. The Swiss keep home interest alive by reaching the knockout stage.

Group B – Germany cruise into the quarter-finals. Poland edges out Croatia for second.

Group C – France come through the Group of Death unscathed. Italy also makes it out alive.

Group D – The Spanish win the group. Russia finishes runner-up.

Quarter-final 1 - Cristiano Ronaldo leads Portugal over Poland.

Quarter-final 2 - Germany end Swiss dreams and progress.

Quarter-final 3 - Russia stuns Europe by beating France.

Quarter-final 4 - The match of the round. Spain topples Italy.

Semi-final 1 - Portuguese flair falls to German steel.

Semi-final 2 - Spain takes care of business against the Russians.

Final – Spanish flags fly high in Vienna – Iker Casillas hoists the Henri Delaunay Trophy.

Top Scorer – Fernando Torres powers Spain to the Championship and takes home the Golden Boot.

Breakout star – If given a chance, Karim Benzema should shine for France. Reminiscent of a young Ronaldo, the Lyon striker is blessed with speed, power and explosive shooting.

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