In my previous column I wrote about the risk/reward nature of certain players. The greatest of these are inevitably the new arrivals, especially those recruited from overseas.
Before considering the recently relocated in this Autumn's draft class, let's take a look at the most expensive transfers made in the Summer of 2007 and see how they fared in Fantasy terms over their rookie year.
Most Expensive
Fernando Torres – c.£20million. Played less than 75% of minutes, but still ranked 9th in the game. Highest-ranked player with fewer minutes was Frank Lampard in 19th.
Anderson – c.£18million. Being handed the number 8 jersey suggested he might have a key part to play at United but the Brazilian youngster, who was only 19 as the season began, only managed limited playing time and a rank of 158th.
Owen Hargreaves – c. £18million. Aged 26 last August, Hargreaves promised more than his youthful Brazilian team-mate but delivered little extra. A series of nagging injuries and the form of Michael Carrick and Paul Scholes meant that he only managed half an hour more pitch time than Anderson. Ranked 118th.
Darren Bent – c.£17million. The most expensive player to move between English teams, the Spurs hitman found himself low on opportunities and often lower on form. Ranked 168th.
Nani – c.£16million. Same old story as the Portuguese starlet managed only limited pitch time and a rank of 130th.
Carlos Tevez - £?. Hard to know exactly the nature of the deal that took the Argentine hitman to Old Trafford, but we do know the success he had there. Tevez was the most valuable new recruit in fantasy, and 4th highest-rated overall.
Craig Gordon – c.£9million. The most expensive goalkeeper to move last summer was a mega-flop, a horrible save ratio leaving him nearly the worst player in the game.
Clearly, there are some high achievers and some fantasy flops in this expensive bunch. Perhaps most surprising is that the top five averaged barely 55% of the total playing time available... fantasy managers should be wary of assuming that a high price tag automatically means a fixed first team berth.
Highest Ranked
If a transfer fee bigger than Ronaldinho's teeth isn't an indicator of fantasy success – what is? Let's look at the players who cracked the top 50 fantasy rankings after a change of scenery last season, and see if there's any kind of pattern:
Carlos Tevez – Ranked 4th. Joined Manchester United on a somewhat opaque loan deal from some investment club/syndicate/persons unknown via West Ham, with the player now valued around £25million. Then aged 23 with 29 caps for Argentina. Forward.
Roque Santa Cruz – Ranked 8th. Joined Blackburn from Bayern Munich for c.£3.5million. Age 26. 56 caps for Paraguay. Forward.
Fernando Torres – Ranked 9th. Joined Liverpool from Atletico Madrid for c. £20million. Age 23. 44 caps for Spain. Forward.
Bacary Sagna – Ranked 28th. Joined Arsenal from Auxerre for c.£6million. Age 24. No caps for France (though 28 at under-21 level). Defender (full-back).
Elano – Ranked 31st . Joined Manchester City from Shakhtar Donetsk for c.£8million. Age 26. 26 caps for Brazil. Midfielder (attacking).
Kenwyne Jones – Ranked 38th. Joined Sunderland from Southampton for c.£6million. Age 22. 31 caps for Trinidad & Tobago. Forward.
Juliano Belletti – Ranked 41st. Joined Chelsea from Barcelona for c.£3.5million. Age 31. 23 caps for Brazil. Defender (full-back).
Aiyegbeni Yakubu – Ranked 43rd. Joined Everton from Middlesbrough for c.£11.25million. Age 28. 35 caps for Nigeria. Forward.
What do we have? Five forwards, one attacking midfielder and two full-backs. In an average sample of 10 players from the top 50 we would have found 0.6 GK, 3 DEF, 3.2 MID and 3.2 FW, so there is a slight bias towards forwards. Elano, whilst a midfielder by name, is in fact a link player who earned almost all his fantasy value from his goals, shots on target and attempts created.
Our pair of defenders are both full-backs who joined established defences at Champions League sides. It is a very small sample size from which to draw a conclusion, but it might encourage a fantasy manager to look with real confidence at 2008 new boys Jose Bosingwa of Chelsea and the Italian Andrea Dossena of Liverpool.
The forwards who performed best each have a body of international experience. This was not true of big-money underachievers like Darren Bent (cost £16million, ranked 214) and David Nugent (£6million, 336).
There are exceptions, such as experienced internationals Diomansy Kamara (£6million fee but only 185th in value), Craig Bellamy (£6million, 320), Alan Smith (£6m, 417) and Mido (6million, 464). The common thread here is injuries: Bellamy missed 6 ½ months, Smith had two lay-offs (though he was mightily ineffective even when fit), Mido was dogged by groin and pelvic injuries and only managed 12 appearances. Kamara was fairly healthy but missed time for the African Cup of Nations.
This gives us something of a set of guidelines to the types of players most likely to succeed at new clubs. Next time out I'm going to try to apply these to players who have found new homes already this summer.
By Sandy King
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