Having looked last time at how players who moved clubs a year ago fared with their new employers, it's time to speculate on what kind of draft investment those who have already switched teams this off-season may merit.
Shot-Stoppers
Craig Gordon arrived at Sunderland with a big reputation but endured a miserable fantasy campaign. I would use him as an unwitting exhibit A to avoid keepers recruited by promoted clubs, and apply this extreme caution to Scott Carson, who was not exactly brilliant at mid-table Aston Villa.
Brad Friedel faced 174 shots between the sticks at Blackburn last season, while Villa's defence only allowed 142. This increased protection should help Brad Friedel's clean sheets tally as he moves South to Villa Park, though at 37 his ability to remain fit the whole season cannot be taken for granted. Paul Robinson may benefit from a change of scenery, but won't see any fewer shots coming at him following his move to fill Friedel's jersey at Blackburn, and should still be treated with scepticism.
Heurelho Gomes will struggle to keep clean sheets behind an injury-prone back 4 at Spurs, though he should provide a higher save percentage than his predecessor. He comes with a solid pedigree, though little international experience.
The Back Line
It's a thin back line so far, with only Jose Bosingwa, Andrea Dossena and Philipp Degen making significant additions to major teams. In the same bracket as Sagna and Belletti, I trust Bosingwa with a very high pick. Dossena will take over Riise's left back position, and should contribute well from there- while I'm a bit concerned by his lack of international experience at age 26, Rafa Benitez has been pursuing him for at least a year and obviously rates him highly. He comes with a reputation as a combative tackler and a very impressive passer of the ball, who looks to turn defence into attack at speed, though unlike Riise he can't be looked to as a source of goals. Degen, however, is already injured and will miss the start of the season while recovering from a groin strain. The Swiss only managed 16 games last season, and his durability worries me.
Tal Ben Haim will offer cover right across the back line to Manchester City boss Mark Hughes. He's no more than a lower tier option in defence, but with both Micah Richards and Richard Dunne missing time through injury last season, the Israeli may get a chance to approach the 82 tackles he made in 2005/06.
The Middle of the Park
Several clubs have picked up players who may become key creative midfield presences. However, last season demonstrated that newly-arrived midfielders, especially those without a strong attacking side to their game, do not always adapt easily to their new surroundings.
The highest-profile addition is Deco of Chelsea, who I think is flattered by his official rank of 18. Deco is 30, and must compete with Lampard, Ballack and Joe Cole for the kind of role he enjoyed at Barcelona. He only played around 1800 minutes in his final season in Spain, and was frequently substituted in the second half. His former national boss Phil Scolari clearly still rates him, but I see several red flags here.
Luka Modric is still only 22, but comes with nearly 30 games' worth of international experience including some dominant performances against England, Russia and Germany. I would be confident of very fine production in both the passing and tackling categories, but with a young player without experience of a top league I find it hard to expect too much in the way of goals or the scarcer attacking stats which put Elano only just outside the top 30 last season. Another one who may be slightly over-drafted because of name value if he goes in the first few rounds – something closer to, though not as low as his official rank of 59 sounds about right to me.
Spurs have also spent big money on David Bentley, who will hope to increase his England chances with a move to White Hart Lane. While that may happen, I don't see how the move could make him any better as a fantasy asset. Bentley was the fulcrum of Blackburn's attacking play, but at Spurs he will have to share time on the ball – and dead ball opportunities - with the likes of Modric, Jenas and Dos Santos. I'm not sure he'll be able to lead the league in attempted crosses as he did last year, for example. He may also miss the wonderful aerial presence of Roque Santa Cruz. That said, Bentley's career has been on a steadily upward course since leaving Arsenal in 2005, and he is entering his peak years.
Arsenal winger Samir Nasri is even younger, and I certainly wouldn't guarantee Alexander Hleb-like numbers from the Belarussian's replacement, but 6 goals and 14 assists in Ligue 1 last season show pedigree. Arsenal rely on goals and attacking play from midfield, and I actually think Nasri could belie his inexperience and have a great debut season. He's no sure thing though. I'm expecting nothing at all from Aaron Ramsey, by the way.
Newcastle have recruited Argentine Jonas Gutierrez to play left wing. Unlike, say Martin Petrov, who finished 55th in fantasy value after a move from Spain last summer, he is not a goalscorer, and I have some scepticism as to his productivity. Best case scenario is the kind of season Aaron Lennon had last year to finish 68th, but I'd take the under on that.
Steve Sidwell must improve his distribution and concede fewer fouls if he is to return to the level that persuaded Jose Mourinho to bring him to Chelsea. If Gareth Barry stays at Villa Park I'm not sure how easy the former Reading man will find it to secure a starting berth, though even without one he will still get a lot of time on the pitch, due to the thinness of Martin O'Neil's squad.
Middlesbrough duo Didier Digard and Marvin Emnes have potential and should spend a lot of time on the pitch, but are both young and unproven at the highest level. Emnes has searing pace however, and may be worth a gamble in the late rounds.
Zoltan Gera is a reliable pro who is 29 but stayed healthy all last season, and has Premiership experience and could do well at Fulham. Fabrice Muamba is a classy player who was able to finish in the top 90 last season for relegated Birmingham and will now look to build on this with Bolton. He should make a lot of tackles there, and if his distribution can improve he could be a very useful asset.
The Business End
Robbie Keane's move is the headline here, with the Irish all-time top goalscorer getting a chance to play alongside Fernando Torres. His link play and Torres' power and pace should make a profitable partnership – though if Rafa uses him wide, as he has Dirk Kuyt, Keane will struggle to assert himself. His playing time could take a knock too, though he's been used to having to rotate alongside some talented strikers at Tottenham. I'd expect pretty much the same again from Robbie, who has earned managers' trust over the years – but resist the temptation to move him into the top 10 on the strength of the move.
The combination of experience and a good track record for fitness is found in a couple of other forwards who have moved club this summer. Bolton's club record signing (for around £11million) Johan Elmander is 27, has nearly 40 caps for Sweden and has averaged comfortably over 30 games a season for the past six years. He is not the most prolific scorer, but if he can translate his 1-in-3 form from Brondby and Toulouse to the Premier League he still represents a 10 goal striker who looks to be pretty much the first name on Gary Megson's team sheet when available.
Portsmouth paid a similar sum for Peter Crouch, who has 14 goals in his 28 games for England and should benefit from a regular starting spot on the South Coast. He too is 27 and with no major injury history. Like Elmander, he is not a prolific goalscorer, but should be seen as a low-risk option.
On the other hand, Manchester City's £19million purchase Jo has only one cap for Brazil and is only 21 years old. While he may achieve much, he represents a high-risk commodity on draft day, who may attract an early round pick for his enormous price tag, but who may not deliver what is hoped of him this season.
Fulham hope that Andrew Johnson can return to the form he showed at Crystal Palace in 2004-05, when he tallied 21 goals in the Premier League. He'll certainly get the chance to be the main man again at Craven Cottage, but I'm not sure I believe that he'll suddenly become more productive in front of Fulham's more limited midfield than he was ahead of the likes of Arteta and Cahill at Goodison. I could see a slight uptick on last season's numbers, but don't break the bank.
Fulham paid nearly £6million for Bobby Zamora, who ranked outside the top 320 last season and has nothing in his background to suggest he should be drafted with this in mind. The same is true of Stoke's £5.5million man Dave Kitson.
Giovani Dos Santos is a talented inside forward recruited from Barcelona. At only 19 he will struggle for consistency, but if he ends up in a rotation for the second strikers' job at White Hart Lane his natural talent could begin to win through. I see his debut season somewhat similar to that of Nani at Manchester United last year – Nani finished 130th on the player rater. Speaking of Mexicans, Arsenal's Carlos Vela has the talent to make a real impact on the league, but I question whether he will be able to fight through a crowded depth chart at Arsenal this season. I think he may find his time restricted largely to cup competitions with the odd bit of league time – a perfect sleeper for a reserve squad.
Wigan's loan signing Amr Zaky is, amazingly, ranked number one on the FIFA list of international strikers, and despite this obvious bit of daftness he could be a very interesting sleeper pick.
By Sandy King
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