Roto FC Mock Draft - Analysis

When the real 2008 Roto FC Draft takes place on Sunday, it will likely look very different to our Mock Draft (Rounds 1-10, Rounds 11-18).

There are, however, some trends that might be worth paying attention to come draft day.

Positional Breakdown

Click on this table to expand.

Goalkeepers - There are three distinct groups of goalkeepers. The elite, the middling, and the wouldn't-touch-with-a-barge-pole. The elite - Cech, VDS, James, Howard and Reina - should all be gone by the end of round 3. Expect the middling group - including Almunia (who could actually go higher), Friedel and Gomes - to go a few rounds later. After that you find a big decline in value, which explains why we didn't see keepers picked up again until the later rounds.

Defenders - Only 12 defenders were selected in the first 5 rounds and all of those, with the exception of Portsmouth's Glen Johnson, were from the "Big Four." When they did go, defenders tended to be fairly streaky - a run of 5 defenders were selected between rounds 9 and 10. If it's clean sheets you're after - as with goalkeepers - you'll need to grab the elite defenders early, but there are plenty of serviceable fullbacks to be had in the lower rounds.

Midfielders - By and large the midfielders taken first will be your your creative box-to-box types - Gerrard, Fabregas, etc. - since they offer the most all-round value. Wait until at least the 5th of 6th rounds to get your tough-tackling midfielders like Mascherano and Hargreaves. The later rounds will be reserved for young potential - see N'Zogbia and Denilson in the last round - and proven but aging players like Giggs and Murphy.

Forwards - Get your best forwards quick. Ronaldo will almost certainly be the first player drafted (especially after pledging his short-term future to United) and the first round will probably see the next 3-5 best strikers go with him. Forward is the position where there is probably the highest risk/reward; Concerns over fitness saw Benjani (last year's 8th best striker) fall to the last round, while the brittle Michael Owen was gambled on in the 4th.


Club Breakdown

Click on this table to expand.

The draft board reads a lot like the league table, with managers gobbling up the bigger clubs' star men and unwilling to risk picks on players from the smaller clubs. With 71 players drafted, the "Big Four" account for almost 40% of the 180 choices. Manchester United have the best "elite players" with a league-leading 6 in the top 20. Chelsea have the most players overall - a testament to their great depth - and the most in the top 100. Arsenal and Liverpool look fairly similar across the board.

The next best are Spurs and Man City with 14 and 13 players chosen respectively, though Spurs had two taken in the top 20 and City had none. Villa and Everton have 11 players apiece with only Villa's Ashley Young breaking into the top 20. Next are Portsmouth with 10, including an impressive 4 in the top 50. Newcastle and West Ham both had 9 players selected but the majority were in lower rounds - only 1 top 50 pick between them.

Also-rans like Wigan, Fulham, Middlesbrough, Blackburn, Bolton and Sunderland have a few players each. Boro do at least have Stewart Downing, their only top 20 player, while Rovers boast the 12th pick, Roque Santa Cruz.

Life is tough at the bottom. None of the promoted clubs managed a single player chosen (thoigh this may change on Sunday when there will also be 4 reserve players drafted per manager). In my haste to post, I actually gave Zoltan Gera to West Brom until I realised my mistake and gave him back to Fulham. Sorry Baggies. Newly promoted players may of course become attractive free agent options depending on performances - an Ishmael Miller perhaps or the much-doubted Dave Kitson.


Players Not Selected

As I said above, there will be 40 additional picks made for reserve players on Sunday , but I still thought it was interesting to see certain names go undrafted:

Shaun Maloney/Forward/Aston Villa
Grabs the odd goal in Martin O'Neill's forward line rotation

Brett Emerton/Midfielder/Blackburn Rovers
Energetic Aussie played 33 times for Rovers last term - surely worthy of a pick.

Olivier Kapo/Midfielder/Wigan
Scored 5 goals for Birmingham last season. Now reunited with Steve Bruce at Wigan.

Joey Barton/Midfielder/Newcastle United
Having received a second chance (more like fifth) will he change his ways?

Andre Ooijer/Defender/Blackburn Rovers
Getting on at 34, but still plays for Holland. Key part of a decent Blackburn defence.

James Milner/Midfielder/Newcastle United
Once considered one of England's brightest prospects. Should play more under Keegan.

Lucas/Midfielder/Liverpool
Currently at the Olympics, but should continue his steady progress when he returns.

Kanu/Forward/Portsmouth
The lanky Nigerian is prone to the odd shocking miss but he brings entertainment if nothing else.

Andrei Shevchenko/Forward/Chelsea
How are the mighty fallen. Made Pele's FIFA 100 list, now he can't even make the top 180 Premiership players.

Kevin Davies/Forward/Bolton Wanderers
The only regular player to make the top 5 in a scoring category (fouls won) and not be drafted.